Based on how rapidly people have returned to the streets, China will probably be ready to cope with Covid-19 by the end of March, according to Larry Hu, the chief China economist at Macquarie.
The resort city of Sanya, Chongqing, and Guangzhou have all declared in recent days that the worst of their respective regional outbreaks has passed.
In a study, medical researchers from Shanghai predicted that the most recent Covid wave will move through major Chinese cities by the end of 2022, with illnesses first appearing in rural areas and farther-flung provinces in central and western China in mid-to-late January.
TAIPEI — Based on how rapidly people have returned to the streets, China will probably be ready to cope with Covid-19 by the end of March, according to Larry Hu, the chief China economist at Macquarie.
He emphasized that data from the subway and roads show that traffic in major cities is increasing, indicating that the worst of the most recent Covid wave has gone.
Hu stated in a study on Wednesday that “the sudden U-turn in China’s Covid policy since mid-Nov implies deeper short-term economic downturn but faster reopening and recovery.” “A significant revival in the economy may occur in the spring.”
Also read: Elderly people leave cities as COVID infections rise in China | Coronavirus Pandemic News
The tourist hotspot Sanya and the southern metropolis of Guangzhou both claimed to have passed the Covid wave’s height over the past few days.
A prominent fever clinic in Chongqing reported just over 3,000 daily visitors on Tuesday, a significant decrease from Dec. 16 when more than 30,000 patients were seen. There are around 32 million people living in the province-level region. According to traffic data from Baidu, Chongqing was the most congested city on the Chinese mainland during rush hour on Thursday. According to the statistics, traffic in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and other large cities has grown since a week ago.
According to Wind Information, as of Wednesday, subway ridership in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou had increased dramatically from recent lows but had only reached around two-thirds of levels from a year ago.
According to a publication on Thursday, Caixin’s monthly survey of service businesses in December indicated that they were the most upbeat they had been in about a year and a half. In December, the seasonally adjusted business activity index increased to 48 from a six-month low of 46.7.
That reading below 50 still denotes a decline in company activity. In a separate Caixin survey of manufacturers, the index dipped slightly from 49.4 in November to 49 in December. It was the most upbeat they had been in ten months.
Poorer, rural areas next
In a study, medical researchers from Shanghai predicted that the most recent Covid wave will move through major Chinese cities by the end of 2022, with illnesses first appearing in rural areas and farther-flung provinces in central and western China in mid-to-late January.
The researchers wrote in a paper that was published in late December by Frontiers of Medicine, a journal supported by China’s Ministry of Education, that “the extensive travels during the Spring Festival (January 21, 2023) could be dramatically enhanced by the duration and magnitude of the upcoming outbreak.”
Typically, during the holiday, also known as the Lunar New Year, hundreds of millions of people travel.
The highly contagious omicron variety poses a larger risk of serious illness for senior adults living in remote areas of China, particularly those with underlying medical issues. The absence of medical facilities and intensive care units in rural areas particularly alarmed the writers.
The public health system in China was already overburdened before the outbreak. People from all over the nation frequently flocked to the capital city of Beijing’s packed hospitals in order to receive better medical care than they could in their hometowns.
Louise Loo, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, expressed continued skepticism regarding a quick recovery in China’s economy.
According to a report released on Wednesday by Loo, “a normalization in economic activity will take some time, needing among other things a change in public opinions toward contracting Covid and vaccine effectiveness.”
According to the company, China’s GDP would increase by 4.2% in 2023.
Lingering long-term risk
The medical researchers also expressed concern about the possibility of “several waves” of omicron outbreaks on the mainland, with further peaks in infections possibly occurring in late 2023. “In the months and years to follow, the significance of routine monitoring of circulating SARS-CoV-2 sublineages and variations across China shall not be overstated.”
The World Health Organization, however, announced Wednesday that it was requesting China for “more rapid, frequent, trustworthy data on hospitalizations and deaths, as well as more thorough, real-time viral sequencing” due to a shortage of timely information.
Early in December, China quickly lifted many of its onerous COVID rules that had constrained trade and social interaction. On Sunday, the nation will formally lift its ban on entering passengers being subject to quarantine, allowing Chinese nationals to once again take leisure trips overseas. Beginning in March 2020, the nation implemented stringent border controls in an effort to domestically contain Covid.
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